TUYA Digital, Europe’s premier Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) and leading SEO agency in Europe, has conducted an in-depth analysis highlighting the significant impact of Google’s new Gemini generative answers on organic search traffic.
This comprehensive study, leveraging current data and historical trends, underscores a substantial decline in Click-Through Rates (CTR) for organic search results across all top ten positions on Google’s first page on organic search traffic.
Despite the calls for “no panic,” our study shows that the drop is quite significant based on historical data and our recently developed model to project the loss in organic traffic.
The research conducted by TUYA Digital reveals that the introduction of Gemini, Google’s latest AI-driven generative answer feature, results in a variable CTR decrease across organic search positions from 1 to 10. This decline is attributed to generative answers’ prominent placement and informative nature, significantly altering user interaction with traditional search results.
There could be some similarities between the current context and the introduction of the rich results by Google, but this time, the impact needs research.
Context: The Recent Introduction of AI Overviews by Google
Basically, AI Overviews offers an AI-generated answer on top of the other results:
When clicking to reveal the whole AI-based answer, it is shown as such, with the quoted websites at the end:
Are you satisfied with this result? Are you going to the classic 10-result-feed? Are you going to click on one of the cited sources?
It’s still early to tell, but Google will certainly communicate the percentages in a few weeks. However, we wanted to predict the drop in search traffic for positions 1-10 following the introduction of AI Overviews. Here’s what we discovered: a formula that applies to AI overviews’ impact on search and the impact of AI-based answers in general.
Developing the 7-Factors-Formula for Calculating the Impact of Google’s Generative Results on Organic Traffic
To develop a formula for estimating the average percentage of traffic drop for organic positions after the introduction of generative answers by Gemini in Google search, we need to analyze several data points and historical data:
To create a formula, we will consider the current average CTR, rich snippets’ historical impact, and Bing’s Copilot’s observed impact. We assume the introduction of generative answers will follow a similar trend to rich snippets but might be slightly less severe than the drastic early drops seen with snippets. Yet, once applied, the formula offers a rough estimation of the drop in the organic traffic following the introduction of generative results such as Overviews AI or Copilot.
The 7 Factors to consider when creating the formula for calculating the impact of Generative Results on Organic Traffic
1. Current Average CTR for Organic Positions 1-10
The CTR for the first position on Google is approximately 28.5%.
The CTR decreases significantly with each subsequent position: the second position has about 15%, the third 11% and positions 9 and 10 have around 2.5% (First Page Sage)
2. Historical Traffic Drop after Google Introduced Rich Snippets
When Google introduced Rich Snippets, studies showed a notable decrease in organic CTR for traditional blue links. For instance, one study observed a 25% decrease in desktop CTR and a 55% decrease in mobile CTR over time due to the inclusion of rich snippets and other SERP features (Smart Insights).
3. Impact on Traffic after Bing Introduced Copilot
Following Bing’s introduction of Copilot, many websites reported a significant drop in organic traffic. Estimates suggest a drop in CTR by approximately 20-30% across the board for organic search results due to the prominence of AI-generated answers.
Given the complexity of search engine algorithms and user behaviour, additional factors and conditions could be incorporated into the formula to make it more robust and reflective of real-world scenarios. Here are just a few subjective factors to consider. Some are measurable; others are purely sociological.
4. Type of Search Query
- Transactional vs. Informational: The impact of generative answers might differ based on the query type. Transactional queries (e.g., “buy shoes online”) might be less affected than informational queries (e.g., “how to tie a tie”) since users seeking to make a purchase may still prefer clicking on an organic link.
- Brand vs. Non-Brand Searches: Branded searches (e.g., “Nike shoes”) might retain higher CTRs even with generative answers compared to non-branded generic searches.
5. SERP Features
- Presence of Other Rich Snippets: Rich snippets like featured snippets, image packs, or local packs might further impact the organic CTR.
- Ad Density: The number of ads shown above the fold can significantly alter the CTR for organic results.
6. User Device
- Desktop vs. Mobile: CTRs can vary between desktop and mobile users. Mobile users might interact differently with generative answers compared to desktop users.
7. Time of Day and User Location
- Users’ search behaviour can vary based on the time of day and geographic location, which might influence CTRs differently.
The formula for Estimating CTR Impact
To account for these factors, we could introduce weights or adjustment coefficients. Here’s a more detailed formula structure incorporating some of these additional conditions:
C new=C current×{1−(D historical×A factor×Q type×S features×D device)}
Formula Components
- C current (Current CTR): Average CTR for positions 1-10.
- D historical (Historical Drop Percentage): The average drop in CTR after rich snippets.
- A factor (AI Impact Factor): The estimated impact of AI-generated answers is based on features similar to Copilot.
- Q type is a coefficient representing the type of search query (transactional/informational, brand/non-brand).
- S features is a coefficient representing other SERP features (rich snippets, ads).
- D device is a coefficient for user device type (desktop/mobile).
Given the data for C current, D historical and A factor
- C current: [28.5%, 15%, 11%, 8%, 6%, 5%, 4%, 3%, 2.5%, 2.5%]
- D historical: 25% (average of desktop and mobile impacts)
- A factor: 25% (considering a conservative estimate based on Bing’s Copilot data)
Coefficients’ value
- Q type:
- Transactional: 0.9
- Informational: 1.1
- Brand: 0.85
- Non-Brand: 1.15
- S features:
- Presence of rich snippets: 1.2
- Absence of rich snippets: 0.8
- D device:
- Desktop: 1.0
- Mobile: 1.05
Applying the 7-Factors-Formula
Let’s apply this to Position 1 for an informational non-brand query on mobile with rich snippets present:
Q type=1.1
S features=1.2
D device=1.05
In these conditions,
C new=28.5%×{1−(0.25×0.25×1.1×1.2×1.05)}
meaning C new=26.04%
This revised formula accounts for additional nuances and can provide a more tailored estimate of the traffic drop.
Detailed CTR Impact of Generative Results on Organic Traffic
Here are the calculated impacts for positions 1-10 using the revised formula, which incorporates additional factors such as query type, SERP features, and device type:
| Position | Current CTR (%) | New CTR (%) | Percentage Decrease (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28.5 | 25.54 | 10.39 |
| 2 | 15.0 | 13.51 | 9.93 |
| 3 | 11.0 | 9.95 | 9.55 |
| 4 | 8.0 | 7.27 | 9.13 |
| 5 | 6.0 | 5.48 | 8.67 |
| 6 | 5.0 | 4.59 | 8.2 |
| 7 | 4.0 | 3.69 | 7.75 |
| 8 | 3.0 | 2.78 | 7.33 |
| 9 | 2.5 | 2.33 | 6.8 |
| 10 | 2.5 | 2.34 | 6.4 |
The introduction of generative answers (Gemini) and other influencing factors is estimated to cause an average 8.42% decrease in CTR for each organic position from 1 to 10. This calculation helps provide a more nuanced understanding of the potential impact on organic traffic for each position in SERPs.
Again, this is only an estimation we calculated based on key factors and historical data. However, other experts may come up with different figures and we actually look forward to it.
Yet, this is only the beginning. As users increasingly turn to generative engines and AI-generated answers, the organic traffic will drop even more. Estimations show a 15-20% decrease in organic traffic by 2026; some consider this conservative. Skeptics mention up to 30% decrease in organic traffic in one year, and we tend to adopt this last estimation considering the evolution of Perplexity, Gemini, Copilor and other AI-based generative answers tools.
However, we still have to consider that after introducing Copilot AI-generated results in Bing’s searches, users still click on some of the links cited in the generated answer. Regardless of how search or generative engines categorize this traffic, it is still derivative of organic searches. It means that some of the drop in organic traffic is recovered in clicks on your links if your website is cited in the generated answers. This is why the drop in organic traffic is lower than predicted by some experts.
On top of that, Gemini’s not generating results for all the queries, which means that AI Overviews won’t appear for all the searches users conduct on Google.
GEO Expert Insight on Influence of AI-generated Answers on Organic Traffic
Adam C, CEO of TUYA Digital – Generative Engine Optimization agency, commented on these findings.
“The advent of generative answers like Google’s Gemini marks a significant evolution in search engine dynamics. While it enhances user experience by providing immediate, AI-driven responses, it poses a challenge for organic traffic. Our analysis shows a variable drop in CTR for top organic positions, with higher ranks experiencing up to a 10.4% decline, but the average we found out is a 8.66% decrease in the organic traffic following the introduction of generative answers in feed.
Yet, even this percentage will evolve, as the habits change and users will turn to AI generative answers rather than browsing ten results in feed to find out the much needed information.
This emphasizes the need for businesses to adapt their SEO strategies and turn to GEO – Generative Engine Optimization.
At TUYA Digital, we are committed to helping our clients navigate these changes and optimize their digital presence in this evolving landscape.”
Adam C, TUYA Digital – Search & Generative Optimization
Strategic Adaptation of Key Finds To Improve New CTR Percentages
TUYA Digital recommends several strategies for businesses to mitigate the impact of this shift:
- Enhanced Content Quality: Focus on creating high-quality, in-depth content that answers user queries comprehensively.
- SERP Feature Optimization: Aim to secure featured snippets, knowledge panels, and other SERP features to maintain visibility.
- Long-Tail Keywords: Target long-tail keywords to capture more specific search intents that generative answers might not fully address.
- User Engagement: Enhance user engagement on-site to improve overall user experience and satisfaction, which can indirectly influence search rankings.
For more advice on improving your presence in AI-based engines and generative results, check our best practice for Generative Engine Optimization results.